We are in danger of creating an abandoned generation

School leavers and graduates are unjustly bearing the brunt of their elders’ incompetence

Nick Cohen
The Observer, Sunday 5 April 2009

The recession has been an equal opportunities destroyer. It began with a culling of City financiers and moved out to take the livelihoods of builders, shop assistants and assembly line workers. Only the public sector seems safe, but it will surely be shredded when Britain has to meet its debts.

The crisis is showing as little respect for education as occupation. One-third of the unemployed have A-levels or degrees and must be wondering what happened to their teachers’ promises that hard work brought its own rewards. Nor does the old north-south divide offer protection. If anything, unemployment is rising faster in Swindon, Exeter and Reading than Leeds, Liverpool and Manchester.

The majority of people will work through this recession as they worked through all others. Because they cannot know in advance that they will be safe, however, fear of unemployment is growing into a universal emotion.

I would blow the dust off cliches about us all being in this together were the young not suffering excessively. They are always the first victims of a recession because employers respond to a collapse in demand by taking the humane decision to freeze recruitment rather than make their existing workers redundant. This time around, though, the young stand out because they have had the bad luck to be the children of the mini baby boom of the late Eighties. The Great Crash of 2008, as I think we can safely call it, has coincided with a rush of new workers into a vanishing jobs market.

From 1980 to 2000, the absolute and relative size of the 16-24 age group declined. Since 2000, it has grown from 6.4 million (10.8% of the population) in 2000 to 7.4 million (12.1%) in 2007.

To get an instinctive feeling for their predicament, imagine how different British culture and society would have been if the first children of the postwar baby boom had reached maturity in the mid-60s to find collapsing banks and mass unemployment. We would have heard considerably less over the decades about growing up with rock’n’roll and much more about growing up on the dole.

David Blanchflower, of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, wants an emergency programme to keep the young learning. He says the government should raise the school leaving age to 18 at once, invest in subsidies for apprenticeships and for university places and pay for a large increase in the number of teachers and work placements.

Blanchflower is about the only economist to emerge from the crash with his reputation enhanced. While his colleagues fretted about the illusory peril of inflation, he warned that Britain faced a second depression unless it tore up the rule book and recognised that a national emergency was underway.

I suspect even his high reputation will not be enough to carry his proposals through. Against him is the cost, which will be enormous. Blanchflower says we cannot afford not to pay and need to worry about the price of unemployment and rising crime. But even if politicians are prepared to throw money at job creation, they may think they would do better to direct resources to workers in their forties and fifties who lose their job and cannot find another. It seems natural to argue that the young will pull through because they have many years ahead of them to sort out their lives.

History is not always written by the victors, but it is inevitably written by the literate. When this crash is remembered in novels and biographies, the future middle class will share the notion that they were strong enough to cope by telling a story of a disaster that came without warning – an economic version of an unforeseen war – which they struggled against and overcame.

Yet many of the young unemployed are not graduates, but 16-year-olds with minimal education who could do with a lot more of it. I can think of many reasons to resist the notion that the pre-2008 world was a time of hedonism and plenty. Chief among them is the dismal statistic that youth unemployment rose steadily in the boom years.

In any case, the educated young are not as tough or as privileged as outsiders assume. Blanchflower’s colleague Andrew Oswald of Warwick University demolished Milton Friedman’s view that the unemployed rationally prefer the leisure of living on low benefits to the exertions of working for more money by studying the vast amounts of data governments produce on social attitudes. Unemployment, Oswald showed, brought a level of stress, ill health, marriage breakdown and misery out of all proportion to the loss of income. If you have ever had your confidence fall apart during a spell on the dole, you will not need him to tell you that, but many free-market Conservatives still do.

The trumpeting of the discovery of the hitherto unknown mental illness of “affluenza” by Oliver James, Anglican bishops and other traditional conservatives comes from a different philosophical tradition, but is offensive for the same reason. It ignores the commonsensical observation that it is not wealth that makes people crack up, but poverty, specifically the monotony and isolation of unemployment.

The educated young hurt the most. As Blanchflower says, a 40-year-old who spends a year out of work and then finds a new job shows no long-term ill-effects at 50. A 20-year-old is scarred for life. No one knows why. For a graduate leaving university with a good degree, the lost hopes of an attractive job and independent life may explain it. Perhaps bright students, used to praise, cannot handle rejection well.

Whatever the reasons, the evidence from Britain and around the world is consistent: whether governments want to increase the sum of human happiness or future prosperity, they do best when they invest in the next generation. I do not mean it flippantly when I say that they have more years ahead of them to be miserable in than the rest of us, so it is best not to start them off too early

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6 thoughts on “We are in danger of creating an abandoned generation

  1. Hear BLOODY hear. Except in my case I was already scarred by the time I got my degree. (I had intended to go on to an academic career, and the university made damn well sure I could not.)

  2. I have no Gsce’s ( can’t even get that right) and sincerely no chance of work, perhaps for a long time. Everything advertised is requiring a skilled person. And yet there is pressure at signing on time.
    It’s the job centre’s who don’t seem to be taking this recession with the seriousness they ought to. They’re thinking like Friedman.

  3. Stephen Glover says Nick Cohen is under pressure at the Observer. I would hope not. But if Philip Marlowe were around, I’m sure he’d be holding on to the page with the missing photograph.

  4. My dear Nick, the problem for young people prior to last year’s crash was that the education establishment had spent the last thirty years dismantling academic education as “elitist”.
    So these young people have no decent state-provided education. We can’t do basic mathematics, our standards of written and spoken English are at their worst in probably 100 years and we’ve debased the standards of education.

  5. Memyselfandyou

    I have been following this and many other site for many year, we are all complaining about the current situation and what the last thirty years has done or not done for the good of our education and employment.

    We are all living in denial, what you see around the world is not simply just a thing of the past, we have all lived through many a recession and will probably live through hard times again, the oil is running out faster than we think,

    what has this got to do with the subject you might ask, it has a lot to do with it, because it is the greed from it what is fueling things, we are now killing ourselves and each others to get at what is left and wasting a vast more amount of it doing so.

    We are all adding to the propblem every day, I remember my Grandfather saying to me 45 years ago, he said,
    Making someone work for mothing and giving someone something for nothing does not work,

    we are all doing this to each other every day, every time you buy that bargain for next to nothing, you must remember, someone somewhere is working for nothing and in order of a few making those profits our recorces will go to where they are made for nothing.

    The very reason why there is no more funding to education is because all the work is now overseas so there are no jobs for those who are learning the skills, and when they leave school they are all fighting each other for those jobs,

    What we need to do is bring back our industries from those contries abroad like Japan are now doing, we still have some of the best minds in design and manufacture in the world, until we do this we will fail to support ourselves and be at the mercy of others, borrow more, have more recessions and have no say to what happens.

    Education is only one step in the ladder, if we are to become a country of office workers all watchin each other and no one doing the work we are destined to fail, what we need is real work, real jobs, real money to spend in our local enviornment instead of stuffing each other up the preverbial.

    The trouble with our government is they think we all owe them a living on top of the living they are making out of us, too many cheifs and not enough indians come to mind.

  6. While I am on the subject of governments, during the last world war we had one of the very best teams our country has ever seen, a mixture of different parties, people with the most experience, which has never been as good since.
    Today the parties are squandering, everything good that we have all worked for, bickering and wasting valuable resorces fighting each other for a ladder up the greasy pole, who make promises which are never kept.
    They go on about all the money that has been lost this last melt down, but did you know that the chancellor made and still makes a billion pounds a day for each penny he puts on a litre of fuel add that all together for every day it was at its much higher rate last year and that is the same amount of cash during the crash, one would think they already knew it was coming and made us pay for it in advance.
    If we think we were paying over the odds for fuel last time, then think again, brent crude was at its hight 147 dollars a barrel, it s now 40 but we are still paying many times over the odds now than we were back then, so who is conning who.

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